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Un texte publié dans le free press qui présente bien l’exemple d’un modèle industriel qui arrive au bout du rouleau. Des fournisseurs qui coûtent plus cher que ce que rapportent les voitures.  Des clients qui ne sont plus prêts à les acheter… Une industrie qui n’a fait des marges que sur des véhicules sans avenir.

Month of economic troubles has U.S. automakers on edge
Another jolt could tear them asunder, analysts say

BY JUSTIN HYDE • FREE PRESS WASHINGTON STAFF • June 22, 2008

The check engine light has come on for Detroit’s auto industry — and the companies can’t seem to find a way to fix the problem.

Every sign of economic health — jobs, oil prices, credit, housing — suggests a calamity on the horizon as bad as Detroit’s keystone industry has ever faced.

Consumers appear to be buying new vehicles in June at the slowest monthly rate in more than a decade. And they especially are shunning pickups and SUVs that have kept the Detroit Three running for a decade. Barring an expected rebound in the economy, sales equal to Chrysler’s total last year may disappear from the U.S. market this year.

Detroit’s automakers are bleeding cash, despite massive cost-cutting and job reductions in recent years. And while each has socked away funds, the money will last only until 2010 at the latest unless the companies borrow to buy more time, analysts say.

Banks appear ready to lend, but at a high cost. And with every loan, the road back to profits gets a little steeper.

« The industry started out with one problem, which was cost, then it was market share, then it was commodity prices, then it was gas prices. It just goes on and on for these guys, » said Shelly Lombard, an analyst with Gimme Credit. « This is the worst situation they’ve ever been in, because there are so many things going wrong. »

Hints of hope

If you’re looking for some sign of light in the gloom, there are glimmers.

• Unlike previous slumps, the vehicles built by Detroit’s automakers are broadly on par with much of their competition.

• The landmark deal that will lead the UAW to take on health care for workers will free up cash in 2010, especially at General Motors Corp.

• All three companies are pushing new fuel efficient models, with side bets on more exotic technology such as plug-in hybrids.

But a permanent cure — generating enough cash to pay their debts as they roll out new vehicles — appears unlikely before 2011, and another unexpected jolt could tear one or more of them asunder, analysts say.

« The outlook hinges on the price of oil. Almost nothing else matters right now, » said John Casesa, a longtime industry analyst and consultant. « If oil prices keep going up, that will shorten the fuse, and if they go down, that will give them some breathing room. … We’re in a very challenging period here. »

This latest round has been triggered by a profound slump in sales, thanks to the specter of gasoline at $4 a gallon nationwide and rising.

A stampede of customers shunning big trucks for small cars has left dealers with too few popular sedans to sell and too many unpopular SUVs and pickups clogging lots.

Russ Shelton, owner of Shelton Pontiac-Buick-GMC in Rochester Hills, said incentives had done little to draw buyers into the showroom.

« There’s no floor traffic, there’s no one calling in, » said Shelton, a 30-year veteran. « This is probably the worst I’ve seen it, and I lived through the oil embargo of the ’80s. »

Référence: Justin Hyde: Month of economic troubles has U.S. automakers on edge, The Free Press, 22 juin 2008

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